Bank of England holds at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote as energy keeps inflation risks tilted up
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 on July 29 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%; Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill preferred an increase to 4%. CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6%, but the Committee expects it to rise later this year as higher energy prices pass through, and judges the risks to the inflation outlook tilted to the upside.
What Happened
At its meeting ending 29 July 2026 the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to hold; Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase to 4%.
What the Summary Says
CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6% since the previous meeting, though the Committee expects it to rise later this year as higher energy prices continue to pass through. Energy prices have remained volatile and higher than before the Middle East conflict. The majority judged that holding Bank Rate, combined with the significant tightening in financial conditions since the conflict began, provides sufficient insurance against upside inflation risks. The three dissenters were less reassured on underlying disinflation, thought second-round effects could be material, and noted inflation has exceeded the 2% target for more than five years.
Why This Matters
Like July's FOMC vote, the pressure inside the committee points toward tightening, not easing. The Bank's own framing is explicit: monetary policy cannot influence energy prices, but it is being set so the adjustment to them still delivers the 2% target sustainably.
What Is Still Unresolved
The Committee itself says the outlook could change materially as events in the Middle East unfold, and its July projections were explicitly conditioned on energy-price paths to 20 July. Whether second-round effects in wages and prices emerge is the stated deciding question, and the minutes record little evidence of them so far.
What To Watch Next
The next scheduled decision on 17 September 2026, and the evidence on second-round effects the Committee says it is monitoring.
Verification Status
Primary source: Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026). An official source is authoritative for what THAT party published; it does not by itself confirm third-party claims. Silence from other parties is never treated as denial.
Sources
Primary source: Bank of England — https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026
Disclaimer
For market-reference purposes only. Trading/investment decisions remain the user's responsibility.
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